MARKETS IN MARCH

The connection between stocks & interest rates.

• Stocks have an inverse relationship with interest rates. When rates are rising, that is seen as a headwind for stock appreciation.  And the opposite is true, when rates are falling that is typically good for stock prices.
• Further, interest rates almost always move in cycles. They trend one way and then trend the other way, like a pendulum.  They don’t alternate in rapid succession.
• Now that rates have stopped moving the “bad” direction for stocks, and we’re waiting for them to start moving in the “good” direction, in our opinion there’s really only one thing that a long-term investor should be focused on, methodically moving cash or safety assets back into equities.
• Also, when interest rates are cut, not only is that a tailwind for stocks, but what happens to the savings rates on your cash? Those go down, too. So when probability tells you stocks should go up and savings rates should go down, what seems like the smart move?

We saw this relationship play out in the markets in February. Anticipation of the Fed’s first rate cut encouraged money to go back into risk assets.

• US stocks, small, mid and large alike, were up about 5% in the month. And Emerging Markets were also up almost 5% as well.
• The boost in stocks, however, seemed to be at the expense of bonds, which dipped about -1.4% in February. However, with many bonds and bond funds still yielding over 4% and the expectation of multiple interest rate cutes this year, the return outlook for bonds is positive.

 Highlighting a couple of law changes in 2024:

• Gift Exclusion Limit was raised from $17,000 to $18,000. This means you can gift $18,000 of cash or securities to someone without reducing the amount you can pass along tax-free in your Estate.
• The contribution limits on all kinds of Retirement plans also went up this year. The most widely used would be accounts like 401Ks & 403Bs (this includes Thrift Savings Plans).  The contribution limit on these went up to $23,000 for 2024.  Other types of accounts such as Regular & Roth IRAs, SEP IRAs, SIMPLE IRAs all had contribution limits go up this year.  As did the catch-up contribution amount you folks over 50.  So be sure to ask your advisor or tax preparer if you can take advantage of these increases.

Joe Gallemore, CIMA®, Partner
Director of Investment Management