Watch December’s Cup of Joe
Get the full breakdown in this month’s video.
Market Forcasts and Better Questions to Ask
- Annual forecasts for market returns are a losing game with a very high failure rate.
- In the last 97 years, the S&P 500 has registered a price return of a single digit gain only 14 times. Yet, over half of analyst predictions were for a single digit gain in data collected by Bloomberg from 2000-2024.
- The same data showed that in 13 of the 25 years, the actual return of the market wasn’t even within the range of predictions!
- Instead of asking “What’s going to happen?”, we think some better questions are:
- “How is my portfolio built to handle different market scenarios?”
- “What are we using to mitigate risk in case there is a down year?”
- “What can I expect if the market experiences volatility?”
- “Given there is a range of outcomes, what else can I control to improve my ultimate success?”
- These avoid anchoring to a statistically unlikely number.
Joe Gallemore CIMA®, CExPTM
Partner & Director of Investment Management
Subscribe
Get monthly market updates delivered to your inbox.
Related
Reading
