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Explore valuable perspectives from our team, featuring articles by Dianne Nolin CFP®, CDFA® Cecile Hult CFP®, CDFA® Eric Ashburn CFP®, CEPA®, CDFA®, CeFT® Joe Gallemore CIMA® CExP™ Jamie S. Blum CPA, CDFA® Alyce Phinney CDFA® Emily Pelletier CGSP® Rasha Bitar CFF®, CGSP® Sierra Lawrence CGSP®  Brett Colbert Maggie Shipley Kayla Hufker

[Cup of Joe] August 2025 Market Update

Time in the Market vs. Timing the Market

There’s a saying in investing that goes,
“It’s not timing the market, but time IN the market, that matters.”

This saying encompasses 3 key concepts for investors:

  • Timing the stock market is very hard, nay, impossible.

  • Staying invested through volatility is a reliably winning strategy.

  • Focus on longer term, rather than short term.

  •  
Using this phrase as a guiding principle can also help avoid stress that naturally comes with making market-timing decisions.
 
Historical data shows that missing the best positive days in the stock market can have a significant impact on your long term return.  Additionally, these best-days usually happen close to the worst days.  So being out of the market for substantial periods presents a real risk of lowering your long term return. 
 
Finally, the stock market is generally rising for much longer periods than it is declining.  So you want your portfolios invested for as much of the bull market periods as possible, and then patiently wait out the relatively short bear markets.

Watch August’s Cup of Joe

Get the full breakdown in this month’s video.

FAQs

What does “time the market” mean?

This refers to an investor’s attempt to get in and out of the stock market based on short-term market movements. Generally, trying to sell out before an anticipated market downturn and then buy back in at the bottom.

 

Why is timing the stock market difficult?

There are no reliable indicators that consistently signal what the market will do next. Markets often move unexpectedly. And on top of that, it’s human nature for emotions to cloud the rational thought process.

 

What is long-term vs short-term performance?

Historical stock and bond returns show that the longer you extend your time frame, the lower the odds are of a balanced portfolio experiencing a negative return.  In this example, a “balanced” portfolio would be 60% S&P 500 Index, 40% US Aggregate Bond Index. 

Picture of Joe Gallemore CIMA<sup>®</sup>, CExP<sup>TM

Joe Gallemore CIMA®, CExPTM

Partner & Director of Investment Management

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